Geographical aspects of demographic burden on the employable population of Ukraine: analysis for 1989-2021

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of population dynamics in the main age groups and the impact of demographic burden on the employable population in Ukraine during 1989- 2021. The purpose of the study is to characterize the dynamics of demographic burden on the employable population of Ukraine for the period 1989-2021, to identify patterns of influence of the demographic crisis and aging processes of the population on the growth of the demographic burden indicator. Based on the processing of statistical information of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, census data in 1989 and 2001, an analysis of the demographic burden in Ukraine in general and in some of its regions in particular, revealed peak years of demographic burden on the employable population and indicated the causes of such a phenomenon. The analysis of the dynamics of the main demographic indicators of the population of Ukraine made it possible to establish that the long period of low birth rate over the past three decades, the insignificant increase in mortality among the elderly population against the background of a sharp increase in mortality in working age, as well as the impact of migration processes have left a deep imprint on the level of demographic burden. A comparative analysis of the total demographic burden factors in Ukraine and the EU countries was carried out. It was found that in all EU countries, the structure of the overall load is dominated by the burden of the elderly (over the age of 65 years), which emphasizes the deepening of the aging processes of the population. Analysis of the age structure of the population of the countries of this group confirms that in the future the share of people of disabled age will only grow, and accordingly, the indicator of demographic burden will increase, which threatens to increase the so-called «social abstinence». The obtained results allow us to conclude that there are signs of «demographic degradation» and «demographic reurbanization» of the employable population in Ukraine. And in the future, the age structure of the population in Ukraine will move towards aging: the number of elderly people will increase, and the number of people of employable population will decrease. This, in turn, will lead to a significant increase in the demographic burden on the employable population. To solve this problem, a set of effective and thoughtful measures of demographic and social policy is needed, which will be aimed at effective and rational regulation of migration flows, creation of new jobs, increase of wages and productivity of labor, improvement of the taxation system, etc.