Modeling and Forecasting the Post-war Economic Recovery of Ukraine’s Transport Potential

Abstract

The article’s purpose is to model and forecast the post-war economic recovery of Ukraine’s transport potential. The construction of dynamic models and forecasting of the constituent parameters of Ukraine’s transport potential in the system of global socio-economic development was carried out. The characteristics of the periods and predictive estimates of ex-post-war dynamic models of the development of transport potential are offered. The authors developed systematic approaches to eliminate the subjectivity of the obtained results, using statistical data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and modern tools of the Microsoft Excel application program. It was determined that to build ex-post war dynamic models and forecast the constituent parameters of the national transport potential in the system of socio-economic development, it is proposed to carry out research based on grouping the characteristics of the transport potential according to its resource capabilities and production results, by distinguishing the following groups of indicators: material resources, human resources, investment resources, production results. Grouping and building ex-post war dynamic models are proposed, which allow structuring the resources of the transport system to achieve maximization or optimization of the production results of the transport system in the context of national socio-economic development and to determine forecast estimates for certain parameters of the transport potential of Ukraine.