Modelling of regional innovative development indicators

Abstract

The aim is to identify trends and research prospects of innovative development of Ukrainian regions through economic and mathematical methods. The innovation activity modeling by individual groups of regions using economic and mathematical methods has been done, including correlation and regression analysis. The innovative activity and its special aspects at the regional level have been analyzed. The grouping of Ukrainian regions according to the degree of innovation activity has allowed to compare the activity of individual groups and regions of Ukraine, to establish that there is a significant asymmetry of innovation activity in the regions. The factors, which influence the innovative development of individual regions according to their innovation activity have been investigated. The economic and mathematical models have been received as a result of correlation and regression analysis, reflecting the dependence of the number of companies that implement innovative products on the major innovative development factors in individual groups of regions. The regression equation based on the verification of collinearity and connection quality factors has been established which corresponds to the average growth index number of enterprises implementing innovative products to regions characterized by varying degrees of innovation activity and adequately reflect the trend line for each group of regions. It has been determined that the dynamics of the number of companies, implementing innovative products is influenced by such factors as: the number of industrial enterprises implementing innovations, the number of companies engaged in innovative activities, the number of executed scientific and technological projects, funding of scientific and technical activities , development of innovative products manufacture. Scientific novelty of research proposals is based on reasonable modeling of possible scenarios of innovative development of regions and justification of concrete proposals to enhance innovation capacity within individual groups of regions. Built econometric models for each group of regions give rise to their use as predictive options and may be taken into account in the development of innovative strategies for regional development and regional innovation programs.